Trump Wins 2024 Election: UAE Experts Assess the Implications for the Region

As Trump’s Return to Power Looms, UAE Analysts Weigh In on His Potential Impact on Middle East Policy, Economic Relations, and Regional Stability

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US Presidential Election has sent ripples across global political and economic landscapes, with experts in the UAE analyzing the potential consequences of his return to the White House. The Republican candidate, having defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in a race that defied predictions of a tight contest, now faces the challenge of navigating a dramatically shifted global environment. Analysts in the UAE, however, foresee a number of impacts on the region—ranging from economic alliances to foreign policy decisions—that could shape the next chapter of US-Middle East relations.

The Power of Trump’s Populist Message

Trump’s political resurgence is credited to a potent combination of populist rhetoric, conservative policies, and a persona that continues to resonate with significant portions of the American electorate. According to Dr. Kristian Alexander, Senior Fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute in Abu Dhabi, Trump’s appeal lies in his ability to connect economic protectionism with national pride. His focus on tariffs and “America First” economic policies has struck a chord with blue-collar communities who feel marginalized by globalization and foreign manufacturing.

Dr. Alexander notes, “Trump’s ability to rally voters with his unapologetic, often theatrical, approach to politics has positioned him as a political outsider who offers an authentic, albeit controversial, alternative to traditional Washington elites.” These themes were reinforced throughout his campaign, especially his hardline stances on immigration, law enforcement, and job creation, which found resonance in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Trump and the Middle East: A Pragmatic Approach

On the global stage, Trump’s Middle East policy has been shaped by transactional diplomacy and a focus on reducing America’s military footprint in the region. The UAE, having already established a strong economic and defense relationship with the US during his first term, stands to benefit further from this pragmatic approach. According to Dr. Alexander, Trump’s previous tenure saw him prioritize alliances with key Gulf nations, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, in an effort to counterbalance Iranian influence.

“Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran, combined with his preference for transactional diplomacy, will likely define his second term in office,” says Dr. Alexander. “The UAE, with its forward-looking goals in defense, energy, and technology, aligns well with Trump’s approach, which focuses on strengthening ties with nations that prioritize economic development and regional stability.”

Economic Partnerships and Investment Opportunities

Trump’s return is expected to boost US investments in the UAE, particularly in sectors such as defense, technology, and energy. The UAE’s strategic vision of becoming a global hub for advanced technology and sustainable energy fits well with Trump’s interests in fostering economic partnerships with reliable allies. Analysts suggest that closer US-UAE ties could enhance collaboration in areas like renewable energy, defense solutions, and tech innovation.

“The UAE’s commitment to security and innovation makes it an ideal partner for Trump’s pragmatic foreign policy,” explains Dr. Alexander. “By continuing to strengthen defense and technology collaborations, both countries can drive further economic diversification and achieve their long-term strategic goals.”

The ‘Transactional’ Nature of Trump’s Leadership

While there is cautious optimism about the potential benefits of Trump’s leadership for the UAE, experts are mindful of the unpredictability that comes with his approach. Dr. N. Janardhan, Director of Research and Analysis at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, describes Trump as a “decisive leader,” but cautions that his presidency could bring significant global disruption. Whether it’s his stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Gaza crisis, or his approach to Iran, Trump’s policies are likely to have profound implications for the region.

“Trump is known for being a transactional president—what he says, he delivers,” Dr. Janardhan notes. “This predictability could be appealing to the UAE and its allies, but it also means that regional dynamics could shift rapidly, depending on his policy decisions.”

Conclusion: A New Chapter for US-UAE Relations

As Trump assumes the presidency for a second term, the UAE is poised to strengthen its relationship with the US in both economic and security domains. His pragmatic, business-focused approach could open doors for further collaboration in key sectors, such as defense, technology, and energy. However, experts caution that while Trump’s return offers opportunities for the UAE, it also brings an unpredictable element to the region’s geopolitical landscape.

The coming years will likely see the continuation of transactional diplomacy, with the UAE and the US aligning on shared goals of regional stability, innovation, and economic growth. Yet, with Trump’s policies often marked by boldness and a willingness to upend established norms, the UAE will need to remain adaptable to the evolving political landscape.